Slate's political editors have taken the trouble of collating all the state opinion polls to guess who would win the election, as of today.
They've sorted states into seven buckets, like this
- Out of play, going to Bush: Alaska, Idaho, Utah, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Mississipi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Indiana
- Out of play, going to Kerry: California, Illinois, District of Columbia, Maryland, Delaware, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New York, Vermont
- Bush likely: Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, Missouri, Arkansas, Virginia, and West Virginia
- Kerry likely: Oregon, Washington, Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Maine
- Bush, but iffy: New Mexico, Florida, Iowa
- Kerry, but iffy: Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire, Hawaii
The result, according to their analysis is that Kerry now has 149 solid electoral votes, 85 likely, and 38 iffy, for a total of 272. That would win him the presidency compared to Bush's 168 solid, 59 likely, 39 iffy for a total of 266.
But, Kerry has fewer locked up than Bush does, so it makes sense that both are trying to make inroads in the "iffy states," i.e., Wisconsin (10 electoral votes), Florida (27), New Mexico (5), Iowa (7), Ohio (20), New Hampshire (4), and Hawaii (4). (Though I haven't heard of either of them visiting Hawaii or Alaska).
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