So far, Hurricane Ivan has managed to snake its way through the Caribbean without hitting any major population center head on, except for the island of Grenada, where it damaged something like 90% of all buildings. Right now, the eye of the storm neatly squeezed between Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula, making things unpleasant for people in both places, but not causing the kind of catastrophe a Category 5 hurricane otherwise would.
This pretty much leaves an open path through the Gulf of Mexico. Right now, the meteorologists are guessing it'll make landfall in the Mobile/Pensacola area. So far the experts have consistently put the hurricane further east than where it ended up - if there's a bias in their models that has caused this, the hurricane may hit New Orleans or Houston. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is hoping that the eye of the storm will weaken and a Northwesterly shear will weaken it to a Category 4 or 3 hurricane by the time it hits the US, but apparently the hurricane has resisted that kind of influence so far. The nice weather here in New Jersey today may be really bad news for New Orleans.
New Orleans would be really bad news. There is are between 48 and 72 hours until it hits, and that's about as long as it'll take to evacuate New Orleans. People should be getting very nervous there.
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