Heretics' almanac

Decreasing number of missing Norwegians

I'm completely baffled by the gyrations in the count of Norwegian casualties from the tsunami disaster.  Regular readers will recall that I estimated the total number of missing Norwegians could be upward of 1400; but boy, was I wrong.  We're down to 77 missing people, after the Norwegian criminal police (Norway has - count 'em - one law enforcement agency, the Police) published the raw list of 200-something, after they had cleaned out something like 1200 from the original list.

It turns out people who were minding their own business at home in Norway were on the list, as well as people who were in places far away from both the Indian Ocean and Norway. 

I thought it was a good idea to publish the list, and it turned out I was right - the number sank drastically as a result.  So I can't, in fairness, complain that they shouldn't have published it when the list was a mess.  And while I'm in my fairminded mood, I should also point out that Norwegian citizens are under no obligation to tell anyone where they're going from day to day.

Tsunami impact on Norway and Sweden

The Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has announced that it will publish the list of missing Norwegians tomorrow.  The list is expected to include close to 1400 names of people who were known to be in areas hit by the tsunami or earthquake a week ago and who haven't been heard from since.

There is considerable uncertainty about the list.  The MFA has obtained manifests from tour operators, notifications from relatives, and probably some information from airlines operating in and out of affected areas.  They are weeding out duplicates over the weekend, and they are particularly concerned about releasing names of missing children. 

Dismal thoughts on natural disasters

Two competing factors affect the impact of natural disasters in our time: one is population growth, particularly in junctures of geographic features, such as river outlets and intersections, coastal areas, valleys, etc., that are more exposed to elements.  The other is technology that reduces the damage such disasters make, e.g., emergency and trauma medicine, rescue vehicles, communication and coordination of relief efforts, etc.

For each country, it is a matter of public policy to manage both factors so as to minimize the damage of a natural disaster.  It seems likely that governments of Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Thailand, India, Myanmar and the Maldives will rebuild their coastlines in a way that reduces the impact should (heaven forbid!) something like this happen again.

Tsunami chaos and recriminations

Because we watch way too much TV, we sort of expect disasters to be accompanied by appropriate lighting and dramatic music.  From what I can see, the tsunami hit various beaches under a clear sky, with no music. 

In the meantime, the Norwegian ministry of foreign affairs keeps updating its numbers in the same misleading way.  430 Norwegians are reported missing; 21 are confirmed dead; and there are additional 1,440 that may have been in the area, but are unaccounted for.  As the days go by, it seems reasonable to worry about 1,870 Norwegians who haven't given sign of life.  Those that are alive presumably know that people are going to be worrying about them.  I have friends who were in affected areas in Thailand, and they sent SMS messages to friends and family; they're also back in Norway as of this morning.

I suppose you have to be cautious when making fatality estimates, but the numbers for this particular disaster seem only to be pointing in one direction.  If the Norwegian MFAs techniques are applied everywhere, the current number of 80,000 to 100,000 may be far from the mark.

Also, there are recriminations back and forth about various governments' willingness and ability to help.  The US took Jan Egeland's criticism personally, and the New York Times says today that yes, we are stingy.  Norwegian survivors are telling the public that the Norwegian government sucked at providing emergency assistance to them.

Another failure of diplomacy

The Wall Street Journal explains today why no warnings made their way to Thailand, India, Sri Lanka, and other areas struck by the Tsunami. 

As it turned out, a number of earthquake centers around the world - seismologists in Indonesia, Japan, and Australia alerted officials in their countries within a half hour that a serious earthquake had occurred, and the Australian officials did in fact determine that a tsunami was likely.  But the information didn't find its way to foreign governments, because there was concern about "overstepping diplomatic protocol." 

Fuck diplomatic protocol, is what I say.  What's needed is a series of networks around all oceans that operate independently of diplomatic channels.  One each for the Indian, Pacific,  and Atlantic oceans; the South China Sea; etc.  Ideally, it should be be publicly accessible network that both feeds raw data and interpretations, allowing local officials, hotels, and individuals to make decisions on their own.