Heretics' almanac: Putting the vaccination issue to rest

Adventures in Autism has read an article I also came across recently in which SurveyUSA conducted a phone survey in California to see if there were any reported differences in prevalence of autism among vaccinated vs. non-vaccinated kids. In a sample of 17,674, 991 (about 5.6%) were reported as being completely unvaccinated. Among this group (the control group) autism was significantly less common.

As the article itself points out, this is not a definitive conclusion; but it does raise questions that warrant further investigation. And as adventures points out, it also proves that it should be possible to find a statistically meaningfully-sized control group for purposes of comparison.

Now, if we accept the 1 in 140 number (give or take), 991 isn't nearly a large enough sample, since it would only yield 6 or 7 autistic kids if the prevalence were the same, and 1,2,3, or 4 wouldn't be a statistically valid deviation. Further, we'd have to figure out what biases exist among those who aren't vaccinated. Do their families profiles correspond - socio-economically, genetically, etc., - to the larger group? What factors would be meaningful?

I agree with adventures that the study is possible, but ideally it should be expanded a bit. To arrive at a valid number, several hundred thousand kids should be in the sample. And if so, other questions should be asked to control for other conditions that might be confused for autism. And then there're my view, which is that "autism" isn't a meaningful diagnosis but rather a label for a cluster of maybe a dozen or so different conditions. So maybe we need a sample of a million kids.

This is still doable. A very thorough survey would probably cost $100 per subject, which translates to $100 million. Not something Generation Rescue could afford, but definitely within the range of the federal government. And it might be valuable to test other hypotheses besides the thimerosal and vaccination issue as well, such as comorbidity and other factors.

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Comments

Sad that merely suggesting such a study evokes a shrill reflexive protest from some who cannot comprehend that a well-intentioned vaccine may have an unintended negative effect. SV-40, Guillain-Barre, lupus and metals poisoning dismissed and replaced with horrific imges of 1950s polio victims. As if one catastrophe negates the other... a false argument.

Some utilitarian ethicists waive individual rights in favor of their perception of "greater good." But I don't see the good of children unnecessarily brain-damaged by ethylmercury, when studies of similar forms show at 1 ppb it kills human neuroblastoma cells (Parran et al., Toxicol Sci 2005) and at 20 ppb damages dendritic cells and interrupts calcium channels (UC-Davis MIND Institute, 2006). Most parents would say their children's brain cells are worth the price of a Happy Meal to get a mercury-free vaccine.

Examining vaccine safety is not equivalent to condemning vaccines, yet the odd pejorative "antivaxxer" is a favorite straw man argument popping up online. Americans are encouraged to research automobiles thoroughly before buying one, and get anecdotal evidence from peers. Yet when it comes to vaccines, we're urged to sit down, shut up and roll up our sleeves without question. Lack of transparency does not instill consumer confidence.

Informed consent demands full disclosure of facts in order to weigh risks and benefits. It's not comforting to learn that one prominent vaccine developer defines "safe" much more loosely than does Webster's Dictionary.

How can medical treatments progress if some procedures are considered sacrosanct, untouchable? By disabling media gatekeepers, the financial goals of industry appear to have supplanted the health needs of people. Whether children can safely handle the ever-increasing vaccination schedule has not been thoroughly tested by independent experts.

The CDC's immunization program would benefit from investing in real, meaningful aftercare for victims of vaccine injury. Look at marketing anecdotes about the sales effects of dissatisfied customers… 94% don’t inform the company, 91% don’t use the product again, and each one relates the dissatisfaction to 20 potential customers.

This week a Minnesota girl’s horrific evisceration in a swimming pool drain renewed calls for passage of last year’s House bill on drain cover maintenance. How tragic that hundreds of thousands of mercury-damaged children don’t seem to be enough to pass the Weldon/Maloney Vaccine Safety and Public Confidence Assurance Act of 2007.

Posted by: nhokkanen | July 07, 2007 at 04:54 PM