Heretics' almanac: The significance of the Six Day War

These days 40 years ago, Israel was in war with Egypt, Syria, and Jordan, who also had quite a bit of help from numerous other Arab countries. There's been lots of press about the political (and to a lesser extent, military) legacy of the war. Everyone agrees it was a stunning victory for Israel and humiliating defeat for the Arab regimes; and there's an emerging concensus that Israel's territorial gains were a mixed blessing. In particular, a lot of pundits think that the role of occupier has served to tarnish Israel's moral standing and reputation among the nations.

I think it would be wrong, naive, and simplistic to reduce the Arab-Israeli conflict to the plight of the Palestinians. It could take a day to end this particular conflict if the principals (the PNA and Israel) were committed to it and several secondary parties (the US, EU, Egypt, and Jordan) provided the right kind of support. Anyone can imagine 2-3 solutions that would be painful in the short run but would easily seem worthwhile if there were real peace in the area.

The historical significance of the Six-Day War is a bit more involved. Here are some points:

It put an end to Arab certainty that Israel could be wiped off the map if only the Arab states put their will and armies together. The Yom Kippur War put an end to such a near-term scenario. But we'd be fools to think that pan-Arabists have given up this idea as a long-term solution to their humiliation.
It isolated the Palestinians' cause from the rest of the Arab world's, all talk of solidarity aside. Sadat started the Yom Kippur war to regain some Arab pride and solidify his own political future, but less was done from 1967 to 1973 to strengthen the Palestinian cause than had been done from 1949 to 1967. As a result, Arafat rose as an independent, renegade Palestinian leader.
This led to a further evolution of terrorism as a means of fighting an assymetric war. And it led to this strange collective psychosis that there's something heroic about sending naifs to blow themselves up with civilians, if the cause seems noble enough.
Because the US sided with Israel in the standoff that followed, Israel became the most durable of all left-wing targets, especially in Europe. Someone, probably the USSR, found in Israel's territorial gains the means to launch a neo-colonialist narrative that got incredible play in the radical foreign policy set with a rather romanticized view of liberation struggles.
In gaining military legitimacy, Israel lost sight of the need for political legitimacy. The strange thing about Israel is that while Israelis (speaking broadly) are deeply cynical in some ways, they are often incredibly naive in others. In particular, since it seems self-evident to them that the Six-Day War was a war for survival, taking over the West Bank, Gaza, Golan and Sinai constituted an absolutely justifiable way of assuring that survival, strategically, militarily and most importantly, morally.

Much of the trouble caused by the Six Day War is behind us. Israel gave up the Sinai in return for peace with Egypt; Jordan and Israel have similarly made peace. Syria has its own trouble. On the other hand, Lebanon has emerged as a front, and Hezbollah has developed a military doctrine that is remarkably effective. The Palestinians have been remarkably unsuccessful in their combat activities, such as they are, but have been phenomenally successful in PR efforts. Pound for pound, Israel is probably the most unbeatable army in the world and will probably continue to learn at a rapid rate.

Many of the most important events in the Middle East are ahead of us. I think there will be more major confrontations that will similarly change the situation and the mentality of the people involved. I think that Hezbollah will eventually be destroyed or sent into exile from Lebanon. The Palestinians will one day have to choose between radicalism and pragmatism, and it may be a violent choice. Syria will disintegrate, and Egypt has to arrive at a more democratic way of government or face upheaval. Jordan will distance itself from its nutty fellow Arab strongmen. Israel has to learn as much from its foreign policy and public diplomacy blunders as it does from military setbacks. The European Union will have to get over its fear of terrorists and extremists and push back - hard - on external and domestic pressure to punish the Jews. The United States is the most likely mediator but has to find a policy that looks more like a process than a winning play. First and foremost, all responsible regimes have to join forces to defeat terrorism, whether by destroying the terrorists or neutralizing their tacit and explicit support. It should be made clear to the world that while "occupation" is a bad thing, terrorism is worse. Palestinians should learn that terrorism will only prolong and worsen their suffering.

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