So Kim Jong-Il has thousands of long-range artillery pieces aimed at Seoul; long-range missile capabilities that could threaten Japan with conventional payloads; and now possibly some kind of nuclear capability. At least to make a dirty bomb. Although their claim to have detonated a nuclear bomb is met with quite a bit of skepticism, Bolton and the US administration is taking them at their word and threatening them with... well, what?
Economic sanctions probably won't make much of an impression on Kim Jong-Il, since all he cares about is himself. It will starve to death some more Koreans, though; so arguably that would be an anti-humanitarian thing to do.
Other things come to mind, but anything that would really hurt Kim Jong-Il might provoke an entirely irrational, destructive response.
Here's one uplifting assessment from the Center for non-proliferation studies:
The biggest military concern in striking North Korean nuclear facilities is the threat of North Korean counter-attacks. Seoul, the South Korean capitol, lies within range of North Korean long-range artillery. Five hundred 170mm Koksan guns and 200 multiple-launch rocket systems could hit Seoul with artillery shells and chemical weapons, causing panic and massive civilian casualties. North Korea has between 500 and 600 Scud missiles that could strike targets throughout South Korea with conventional warheads or chemical weapons. North Korea could hit Japan with its 100 No-dong missiles.[7] Seventy percent of North Korean army ground units are located within 100 miles of the demilitarized zone separating North and South Korea, positioned to undertake offensive ground operations. These units could fire up to 500,000 artillery rounds per hour against South Korean defenses for several hours.
So, let's see. Within, say, three hours of Kim Jong-Il goes into some kind of paranoid spasm, thousands of artillery shells would hail over Seoul; hundreds of Scud missiles could hit anywhere (and as we know, not necessarily where they're aimed) in South Korea; about 100 missiles would hit Japan; about 700,00 North Korean troops would be crossing the DMZ, fronted by about 1.5 million artillery shells as battleground prep.
Now, I'm not a military expert, but it seems to me that a decisive military strike against North Korea would consist of a one-hour operation that ensured:
- Massive destruction of missile and artillery sites, which would at best take out 50% of the capacity
- Bunker-busting strikes against every known command and control center, including chair Kim's presumed, possible whereabouts
- Blanket-bombing North Korean garrisons using deadly napalm, cluster bombs, and anything else that would immobilize the troops for quite a while
- Specops operations at places that would absolutely unnerve the North Korean military leaders, adding a probability that they'll stage a coup
The strategic goal would be to put an end to the North Korean regime and effect an immediate reunification of Korea, to happen so fast that China would have to accept it as a fait accompli. Ambitious enough?
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