What will happen next?

I read UN Security Council Resolution 1701 and nodded in agreement through all of it. The issue isn't whether it's a good resolution (which I think it is), but whether there's a way to enforce it.

In fact, several sources now indicate that it's unraveling even before it started, largely because Hizballah (surprise!) isn't cooperating with the Lebanese government, which isn't surprising if you know anything about the way Hizballah doesn't give a flying fuck about the welfare of the Lebanese people or the sovereignty of the state.

So where does this leave Israel? The resolution allows Israel to perform defensive operations as needed. Setting aside the semantic nuances between "offensive" and "defensive" (one could argue that everything Israel has done in Lebanon is defensive) - at what point can Israel say the ceasefire has been rendered inoperable by Hizballah's actions and resume its plans?

Well, the answer most Norwegians tell you is "never," well maybe when northern Israel is nothing but rubble, they'd probably allow that Israel can reset its "border" somewhere near Caesarea and brace itself for further rocket attacks.

But setting aside this group of people who think that collective suicide is the only moral course of action under the circumstances, here's a thought:

• The IDF brings all its tanks, artillery pieces, and attack helicopters to a screeching halt at precisely the moment the ceasefire sets in.
• Drones, scout helicopters, high-altitude surveillance, and of course specops continue reconnaisance of Hizballah targets.
• The moment a rocket or missile crosses the border from Lebanon and into Israel, the IDF unleashes a three-hour assault against multiple and unexpected targets, then gives the situation another three hours to calm down, while Israeli diplomats run around doing their bilateral thing.
• If Hizballah continues attacks, the strategy shifts to clear an area for the Lebanese army to take over where there used to be Hizballah. This is coordinated through UNIFIL, but the IDF does all the shooting and shelling.
• This then becomes the approach: the IDF reacts to every single Hizballah attack by cleaning out an area held by Hizballah and leaving it in secured state to the Lebanese Army.
• And though it's politically incorrect to say this, I'm not just talking about forcing Hizballah into tactical retreat here - these forces need to be destroyed, by decimating the manpower and destroying anything that looks like weapons. Iran has to have the experience of getting empty air when trying to contact their Hizballah troops.
• Iranian troops should be taken prisoner, their capture publicized as allowed by the Geneva Conventions, and then repatriated through Magen David Adom to Iran, sans weapons and after some rather intense interrogation in Farsi to unnerve these prisoners.

This war is more important than most people care to realize. An intact Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon will undoubtedly harrass UNIFIL into submission, will subjugate Lebanon even more than before, and will sustain Iran's goal of dominating the whole region, radicalizing everything in sight.

Comments

[Chr.]

Try as you might, the world just isnt all black and white.
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/1107AP_Mideast_Fighting_Hezbollahs_Services.html

But ofcourse, demonizing the opposition do help with any moral qualms one might have, history has proven that again and again. Just because LGF and Fox reports all Hezbollah soldiers hide behind small lebanese girls while firing off the katushas, doesnt necessarily make it all true. But then again most people dont necessarily want the truth, they want and accept only information that confirms and/or strengthens any preconcieved opinion they might have.

There is peace now, albeit a very fragile one. For peace to endure, Israel cant enforce its will military on its neighbours. To quote a jew, whos intellect probably surpass us both: "You cannot simultaneously prevent and prepare for war." - Albert Einstein -. In the continuance, concessions will have to be made, bitter pills will have to be swallowed, and Israel, as the strong part, probably will have to do the lions share. But I'm not holding my breath.