I am extremely cautiously optimistic that Arafat's departure from the scene is encouraging the formation of a responsible Palestinian leadership and a regime based on order rather than divisiveness. If all goes well, Palestinians will be the first Arab society to elect their leader in a truly democratic fashion, that is one in which candidates actually campaign against opposition.
One such candidate, Ghassan Barham, has proposed that a peace deal with Israel be based on the 1947 partition plan recommended by the UN General Assembly. This is either hopelessly naive, or else a PR ploy that will allow the war to continue. It is entirely clear that Israel will never accept this plan for a long list of reasons. Barham also wants the US kicked out of the negotiations, demands a full "right of return" for Palestinians plus compensation, and (to his credit) an end to the corrupt ways of the old guard in the Palestinian leadership.
With the exception of the last point, this is hardly a promising platform for the Israelis, but it seems obligatory that all candidates must first show that they're tough on Israel to get any votes at all.
It is astonishing to me that the Palestinian leadership talks about future borders with Israel as if they were in any position to dictate terms. The Arab world has decisively and humiliatingly lost every war against Israel. The PLO has lost every single one of its conflicts and has been kicked out of virtually every single place they've established their headquarters. Say what you will about Israelis, but they're not going to give up any time soon, and they've proven their willingness and ability to make sacrifices to stay.
The reason why there is still talk about victory among Palestinians is because they're convinced it can't get worse, and because they feel time is on their side. Israel is extremely unlikely to opt for "transfer," and the Palestinians can always rely on world opinion to put pressure on Israel to concede more. In the meantime, the so-called "population bomb" is ticking away, creating a larger and larger Palestinian population that wants justice. If there is no urgency to create a durable peace, Palestinian leaders can only benefit from making proposals they know Israel will never accept.
This is why the so-called "settlements" are central to Israel's strategic response. It is Israel's way of making time work against the Palestinians and not just for them. Couple that with a systematic campaign to kill terrorist leaders, destroy their network, and make ineffective their tactics, and the Israelis hope that Palestinian leaders will eventually have the courage to face up to the reality that a less than satisfactory peace is better than an unlikely but glorious victory.
Comments