Fred Kaplan doesn't feel good about Iraq. Democracy isn't catching on down there, insurgents are more and more of the home-grown variety, and the US doesn't have the means necessary to stabilize things once and for all. He does not think a happy ending is likely.
(And in late-breaking news, Debka reports that "radical Shiite saboteurs" set fire to an Iraqi oil well.)
Imagine if in one year the US pulls out after having spent something to the tune of $100 billion, pissed off all our allies and friends, and leaving Iraq in the kind of anarchy that can only be resolved by a bloody civil war and a repressive regime. Instead of being a stabilizing factor in the Arab world, post-Saddam Iraq is the most dangerous place of all. The Bekaa Valley with three or four Hizballahs fighting for dominance.
Both left- and rightwingers ought to feel bad about this.
The left persists in their belief that these insurgents are waging a righteous war against "imperialism," when it in fact is driven by that lethal combination of nationalism and xenophobia. The insurgents (a curious word) are unified only in their opposition to the US presence but will immediately start fighting each other afterwards.
The right - or rather the neocons - are a bit more admirable in their belief that the world would generally prefer a liberal democracy given the choice. But it would appear that Iraqis hate strangers more than they love (rather abstract) ideals of liberty and justice.
The solution, I say, is to put $100 billion toward alternative energy research. The sooner we eliminate our dependence on those oil wells the Iraqis are likely to fight over, the better it is.
I mean lookit the situation right now: Between political problems in Russia, Venezuela, and Iraq, the oil markets are about to go nuts. Saudi Arabia has promised to produce oil full throttle, but China and India are using a lot more and pushing up prices. We are left praying that the Shi'ite "extremists" don't get to any more oil wells, because the economy is sputtering and we may be in for a cold winter.
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