On Monday, NPR invited a Palestinian and an Israeli expert to discuss recent developments in Gaza. And they mostly agreed - Arafat's regime was corrupt but likely to survive, the Egyptian role was a critical fact, uncertainties about the disengagement plan provides much of the context.
I often read blogs written in Israel, and I'm struck by the fact that Israelis living in Tel Aviv, Rishon leZion, and Ashkelon read and watch the news knowing that events are only a few miles away, under the same clouds. I can only imagine that this perspective puts things in a practical light. Terje Rød-Larsen seems to be catching on, and so does Kofi Annan. Arafat is at least part of the problem.
Contrast that with the UN General Assembly vote on the separation barrier, which will have no practical consequences that benefit the Palestinians and only reinforce the Israeli view that the UN either doesn't get it or is overtly hostile to anything Israeli.
As far as I can tell, things are not resolved in Gaza. The stability of the Arafat regime may be less important than something that is progressive and free of corruption.
This may give Israel a break, both on the PR front and in the real world.
On the PR front, Israel should repeatedly stress their desire to find a credible partner for peace - one that isn't corrupt, is dedicated to his people, and has accepted the fact that Israel isn't going away. Arafat doesn't satisfy any of these criteria.
In the real world, Israel should use the separation barrier and the disengagement plan to stabilize conditions for the Palestinians, in other words, make it easier for them to make choices in the service of peace. This requires hundreds of practical solutions to seemingly small problems, but that's where we're at.
Arafat is irrelevant to Israel and a detriment to the Palestinians; the UN and EU are stripping themselves of any credibility; the US is a lame election duck. Now is the time for Israel and real Palestinian leaders to start doing some constructive work.
Likely? No. But we have to keep hoping. The key is finding responsible, competent Palestinian leadership.
There is the prospect of civil war in Gaza, and this will without question spread to the West Bank. Israel will not intervene to stabilize Gaza and may invite Egypt or some other third party country to take it over. If it spreads into the West Bank, Israel will seal it off. Jordan won't want to go in, and it could get really really ugly. Really ugly.
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