The blogosphere is buzzing with Osama Bin Laden's overture to Europe, offering peace with the Europeans if they pull out of "our country," presumably meaning Afghanistan and Iraq.
It seems to me that most European countries are in fact ready to comply with what OBL is asking. They're clamoring to move out of Iraq, and it seems to me that lots of "honest people, especially ulema, preachers and merchants," have formed more or less "permanent committee[s] to enlighten European peoples of the justice of our causes, above all Palestine."
Bin Laden is no fool, and he must surely know that Europe already is inclined to to do what he's asking. European leaders obviously won't go openly concede to OBL's demands, but such an open concession is what he's asking for. But he is suggesting that if they go along with his demands - even quietly - he'll limit future attacks to the U.S. and Israel.
M-11 proved that a good number of Europeans believe that it's better to be isolationist on the war of terror. This type of isolationism involves turning on countries that - for all their shortcomings - are closer in every way to Europe than OBL, or any Arab leader, is.
Bin Laden senses that Europe is weak in character, prone to conflict avoidance, easy to divide, lacking in confidence. If European leaders wish to present a foreign policy that contrasts with Bush's, it can't tempt Bin Laden like this. Europe has to show Bin Laden - much like Kerry has to show Arafat - that its strategic assumption may be different from Bush's, but terrorism will always be counterproductive.
Except that's not what I think Europe sincerely believes.
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